潛伏的危機：信用狀 (Letter Of Credit / LC) (續)

日前提及信用狀有可能引發的危機 －－　潛伏的危機：信用狀 (Letter Of Credit / LC)

現在看來危機開始浮現了，而且有加深的危險：

（資料來源： Bloomberg）

Shipping Lines Say Tight Credit Cutting World Trade

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd., Hong Kong's biggest dry-bulk carrier, and Precious Shipping Pcl. said demand for moving coal, iron ore and other commodities will fall because banks are guaranteeing fewer loads.

``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.''

The lack of letters of credit, in which banks guarantee payment for merchandise, could become a ``big issue'' for world trade, according to Klaus Nyborg, Deputy Chief Executive Officer at Pacific Basin. Tighter credit has contributed to this year's 80 percent drop in the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodities-shipping costs.

近日對全球性衰退的憂慮，波羅的海乾散貨指數(注：Baltic Dry Index，是航運業的經濟指標，它包含了航運業的乾散貨交易量的轉變．許多銀行都視這項指數為景氣其中之一的指標．)已跌破5年低位，加上前述信用狀的打擊，情況實在令人十分擔憂：




(Update1)

（資料來源：　政府統計處）


由上圖可見，香港與進出口貿易相關的行業就業人數為數不少，如果這個板塊出現問題，對香港社會的影響不可謂不大．
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潛伏的危機：信用狀 (Letter Of Credit / LC)

先來點背景資訊，做出入口業的朋友都應當有充份的理解：

在現代國際貿易中，信用狀是整為廣泛的貿易結算和資金融通方式，早已成為各國普遍採用的一種支付方法。基本上，借助於銀行的信用擔保，信用狀以”銀行信用”取代”公司信用”，減少了買賣雙方各自承擔的”信用風險”，解決了付款和交貨上的問題．其發展大大促進了現今的國際貿易發展。

回歸正題，信用狀最重要的一環，就是銀行的信用擔保．其中可能會涉及兩間以上的銀行負責當中的真實金額交收．在一般環境之下，這門生意向來是商業銀行的低風險的生意，提供豐厚的利潤．


可是在這場金融海嘯當中，最關鍵的問題恰恰就是信心問題而非流動性問題．如是推論，信用狀所受的打擊應跟同業拆借相去不遠．如果信用狀的交收出現問題，其影響絕對比起股市樓市下跌更加可怕．因為在近年全球化的背景下，國際貿易而是各國公司賴以為生的道路，而信用狀市場的凍結，將會大大打擊國際之間的貿易，影響將會直接打擊實體經濟以及一般大眾．所以絕對不能輕視．尤以近年極力外各型經濟的東南亞各國（包括中國，甚至為首）所受的影響可能更大．

也許我只是杞人憂天，我也希望我真的是過份憂慮了．但請先看下文：

(來源：Financial Posts)

Grain piles up in ports

Canada next in inability to finance shipments

John Greenwood, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, October 08, 2008

The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.

Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.

"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy."

So far the problem is mostly being felt in U. S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada...

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