HIBOR (24-Oct-2008)

一個月HIBOR可見已大幅下跌, 不過比以長期的水平來看, 依然還是高了一點.
TED Spread/LIBOR等近幾日已明顯下跌速度已有點放緩的跡象, 且看這幾天HIBOR還會否在金管局的行動下持續下降. (繼續閱讀...)

波羅的海乾散貨指數 (Baltic Dry Index) - 20081023

(資料來源: Bloomberg)

仍然在下跌當中, 基本上跌多少已不是應該要問的問題, 要問的是, 最低可以是多少?




今天新聞報導有人提到, 到底這次會否比沙士期間更差? 我答不到這個問題, 但由上圖可見, 我們或許快將會得到答案.

延伸閱讀: 潛伏的危機：信用狀 (Letter Of Credit / LC) (續)
(繼續閱讀...)

潛伏的危機：信用狀 (Letter Of Credit / LC) (續)

日前提及信用狀有可能引發的危機 －－　潛伏的危機：信用狀 (Letter Of Credit / LC)

現在看來危機開始浮現了，而且有加深的危險：

（資料來源： Bloomberg）

Shipping Lines Say Tight Credit Cutting World Trade

Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd., Hong Kong's biggest dry-bulk carrier, and Precious Shipping Pcl. said demand for moving coal, iron ore and other commodities will fall because banks are guaranteeing fewer loads.

``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.''

The lack of letters of credit, in which banks guarantee payment for merchandise, could become a ``big issue'' for world trade, according to Klaus Nyborg, Deputy Chief Executive Officer at Pacific Basin. Tighter credit has contributed to this year's 80 percent drop in the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodities-shipping costs.

近日對全球性衰退的憂慮，波羅的海乾散貨指數(注：Baltic Dry Index，是航運業的經濟指標，它包含了航運業的乾散貨交易量的轉變．許多銀行都視這項指數為景氣其中之一的指標．)已跌破5年低位，加上前述信用狀的打擊，情況實在令人十分擔憂：




(Update1)

（資料來源：　政府統計處）


由上圖可見，香港與進出口貿易相關的行業就業人數為數不少，如果這個板塊出現問題，對香港社會的影響不可謂不大．
(繼續閱讀...)