現在看來危機開始浮現了,而且有加深的危險:
(資料來源: Bloomberg)
Shipping Lines Say Tight Credit Cutting World Trade
Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd., Hong Kong's biggest dry-bulk carrier, and Precious Shipping Pcl. said demand for moving coal, iron ore and other commodities will fall because banks are guaranteeing fewer loads.
``Letters of credit and the credit lines for trade currently are frozen,'' Khalid Hashim, managing director of Precious Shipping, said in Singapore yesterday. ``Nothing is moving because the trader doesn't want to take the risk of putting cargo on the boat and finding that nobody can pay.''
The lack of letters of credit, in which banks guarantee payment for merchandise, could become a ``big issue'' for world trade, according to Klaus Nyborg, Deputy Chief Executive Officer at Pacific Basin. Tighter credit has contributed to this year's 80 percent drop in the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodities-shipping costs.
近日對全球性衰退的憂慮,波羅的海乾散貨指數(注:Baltic Dry Index,是航運業的經濟指標,它包含了航運業的乾散貨交易量的轉變.許多銀行都視這項指數為景氣其中之一的指標.)已跌破5年低位,加上前述信用狀的打擊,情況實在令人十分擔憂:

(Update1)
(資料來源: 政府統計處)

由上圖可見,香港與進出口貿易相關的行業就業人數為數不少,如果這個板塊出現問題,對香港社會的影響不可謂不大.
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